Slowly but surely, Algeria led by the Tebboune / Chengriha duo is in the process of embracing a new status, breaking with the international community, similar to that of Iran, Syria or North Korea. This observation is neither a view of the mind resulting from a hazardous ignorance of the situation nor an exaggeration in the analysis, the fruit of an opponent stuck in his ruts.
This is a reading of the situation which shows that the Algerian regime is in the process of burning all its international relations.
With Morocco the break is structural and is part of the political DNA of the regime. All the choices of the Algerian regime are dictated solely by distrust of its Moroccan neighbor. This was spectacularly demonstrated when, wanting to display an aggressive, even punitive virility, Algiers decided to close the Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline (GME) passing through Moroccan territory. A decision perceived as suicidal in the current international context.
With France, one step forward, ten steps back, as the decision to repatriate the Algerian ambassador to Paris has just shown. Against the background of the Amira Bouraoui affair, the Algerian regime has mounted on its high horse to threaten France with rupture and reprisals. Paris tries to ignore this Algerian adrenaline rush, blaming it on a probable psychiatric dysfunction of its ruling class.
Collateral damage of this crisis with Paris, strained relations with neighboring Tunisia. In the eyes of Algiers, President Kais Saied must pay for not having responded to the Algerian additions to hand over Amira Bouraoui to him, preferring to satisfy the demands of Paris.
Beginning of the Algerian revenge, customs complications for Tunisian nationals returning from Algeria and a significant drop, under false pretenses, in the delivery of Algerian gas to Tunisia. Kaïs Saïed may have sacrificed his Minister of Foreign Affairs Othmane Jerandi, Algiers is still not angry with Tunisia, confirming this tenacious accusation of considering it not as an independent and sovereign country, but as an Algerian province.
On a completely different scale, Algiers provoked a silent crisis with Russia. At stake, clandestine joint military maneuvers with Vladimir Putin’s soldiers on the border with Morocco. Under pressure from Washington, which threatened to sanction the regime, Algiers had to make a commitment to the American authorities to cancel these maneuvers.
However, to maintain its privileged relationship with Moscow, the Algerian army has kept them in the greatest secrecy. And it was Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov who spilled the beans, at the same time exposing Algeria’s lie and duplicity to the international community.
Algeria is currently experiencing a unique political and diplomatic situation with its international environment. It is distinguished by the challenge to this international community based on an insane logic which gives this solid impression that the Algerian leaders live out of time and current issues.
Through its aggressive behavior and choices, the Algerian regime is in itself becoming a factor of mistrust and regional instability. Its assumed alliance with another country banned by the international community, Iran, is likely to arouse all kinds of mistrust whether it is of European or American Arab origin. The growing influence of the Iranian regime on Algerian political and military circles is a source of international concern and anxiety.
Against the backdrop of this crisis of confidence with the international community, Abdelmadjid Tebboune is currently seeking a second term and is asking for help, particularly from France. It is a safe bet that the powers that are preparing to provide political aid to this Tebboune/Chengriha regime and guarantee it the conditions for regeneration must take into consideration the risks of tension and rupture that such continuity implies.
Today the Algerian political picture is very clear. A break with Morocco with threats of war, an open crisis with France and Tunisia, heavy tension with Washington and Moscow, structural distrust of the Arab world, increasingly open distrust of the environment African… so many disruptive elements and behaviors that put Algeria on the way to a State in total antagonism with its neighbours.
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