EBRD: Global economic outlook downgraded | MoroccoLatestNews French

Output in the regions of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is now expected to grow by 2.1% in 2023, compared to the 3% forecast in its last report in September, the institution based on Thursday announced. in London.

In an update to its regional economic forecast, the EBRD trimmed down growth prospects in more than half of the 36 economies it works in, pointing to high gas prices and persistent inflation, among other things. According to Bank estimates, production grew by 3.2% year-on-year from January to September 2022 and by around 2.4% for the year as a whole, a slower pace than in 2021 , explaining this result by the war in Ukraine and the breathlessness of the post-Covid recovery.

“EBRD economies are still suffering from a mix of high gas prices and inflation, with the latter likely to take longer to decline than markets expect,” said Beata Javorcik, Chief Economist at EBRD. the EBRD, quoted in the report.

“The optimism about the rate of recovery and growth from the crises of recent years, including the war in Ukraine, is, in our view, misplaced,” she argues. “That’s why this end of winter update of our forecast is called ‘Not off the hook’.”

Also according to the report, growth in the Bank’s regions is expected to accelerate to 3.3% in 2024. In the long term, phasing out the inefficient use of gas should be positive for the competitiveness of the Europe, underlines the EBRD report. In the short term, however, consumers heating their homes, businesses in gas-intensive sectors and governments subsidizing energy bills remain under pressure from historically high prices.

According to the EBRD, public energy subsidies in the central and south-eastern EU economies, for example, represent around 3.6% of gross domestic product (GDP) on average.

The Regional Economic Outlook is published at least twice a year, with occasional updates. The report is prepared by the Office of the Chief Economist and the Strategy and Policy Implementation Department and contains a summary of regional economic developments and outlook, as well as the EBRD’s growth forecasts for the economies. in which it invests.

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