The Moroccan economy must prepare for a new cycle of growth

The national economy is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2023, after 1.3% in 2022. This was announced by the Secretary General of the High Commission for Planning (HCP), Ayachi Khellaf, during of a conference on Thursday dedicated to the presentation of the 2023 provisional economic budget.

Taking into account sectoral developments and a 2.7% growth in taxes and duties on income net of subsidies, the gross domestic product (GDP) should record an increase of around 3.3% in 2023, after 1.3% in 2022 “Said Khellaf in an intervention on behalf of the boss of the HCP, Ahmed Lahlimi.

Joined by MoroccoLatestNews UK, Driss Aissaoui, economic analyst, indicated that the HCP, as an analyst of the situation, stresses that the Moroccan economy is expected to experience a very positive evolution. An assertion which may or may not be shared by forecasters, economists and many other observers on the national scene, he believes.

Economists and economic analysts in Morocco had already counted on the fact that 2023 will have to be a year of stabilization, then of recovery in 2024 so that the Kingdom can achieve a certain number of objectives that it had already set as part of the overall development plan for the Moroccan economy », explains the economist.

That ” affirmation » of the HCP, which is very positive and optimistic in relation to the Moroccan economic situation, according to Aissaoui, is, according to him, part of a completely objective and professional perspective on the part of the HCP’s economic analysts.

We know that 2022 was an extremely difficult year for the Moroccan economy. The country has recorded an inflation rate of around 8%, which is huge. Moreover, Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) had already taken the initiative to increase the key rate to control the evolution of the money supply. BAM, which is an independent institution, always works in the direction of controlling monetary policy. And I think they’ll make it », underlines Aissaoui.

Indeed, the analyst believes that what is planned by BAM is to ensure that the inflation rate is only around 3 or 2.5% by 2023 and 2024. , noting that these years are supposed to be those of stabilization and revival of economic activity. So how can we say that? asks the economist.

Firstly, because the Moroccan economy was able to withstand the external shock constituted by the war between Russia and Ukraine and the difficulties in supplying the market with petroleum products, and above all with the supply of raw materials, knowing that this region provides no less than 30 to 40% of the world’s consumption needs. But Morocco was able to develop a diversification strategy that enabled it to cope with this situation. “, explains Aissaoui.

Another point raised by the economist concerns Morocco’s revival of quite a few sectors, citing as an example that of education and training, which saw the renewal of all the members of the Higher Council of Education, training and scientific research, which have come to reinforce this tool for reflection.

Morocco had already adopted a growth strategy for everything related to education and training by 2030. And this institution allows for internal reflection (…) and represents practically all sectors of the economy and society Moroccan “, he observes.

Transfers from Moroccans living abroad: A contribution to the future growth of the Moroccan economy

Moreover, the economist raises another point to consider. It’s about the fact that Morocco is a Kingdom with extremely deep roots in history, with almost more than 12 centuries of existence as a modern state, which is huge, he argues.

To recall that “quite recently, the image of Morocco was embellished and promoted by the prowess of the national football team at the Qatar World Cup 2022. Today, we are truly located among the golden square of the World Cup. A new story that has just been written for Moroccan football “.

Also, Aissaoui observes that there is also a recovery at the sectoral level, citing foreign direct investment (FDI), which has been on an upward curve for some time.

In addition to the Russian-Ukrainian war, the analyst recalls that there was also the pandemic impact of Covid-19 which blocked many sectors of activity, in particular tourism, transport which are sectors which create wealth. and employment that had to be preserved. And that is what was done, notes our interlocutor.

Faced with this situation, Morocco has taken very courageous initiatives, according to him, which have made it possible to safeguard most of the activity, citing on this occasion direct investment in the automotive sector (Renault, Peugeot and others such as Volkswagen which has expressed its intention to set up a car manufacturing unit on Moroccan territory.

“In 2023/2024, the national economy must prepare for a new cycle of growth that Morocco will experience from the 2030s. Normally, there is nothing that can block this dynamic, because Moroccans are modest, serious, and work with a lot of abnegation. And all those who can participate in honoring and restoring the image of this economy are already hard at work. The HCP forecasts are So completely objective, and will certainly make it possible to regain mores,” he observed.

To conclude, Driss Aissaoui mentioned the MREs (Moroccans residing abroad), who transferred, in 2022, some 20% of deposits at the level of Moroccan banks, noting that “we are witnessing a new generation of MREs, who are no longer labor exported abroad, but very important factors, since the transfer of money to the Kingdom means their participation in future growth of the Moroccan economy“.

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