Headline inflation is expected to reach 6.6% in 2022

Overall inflation in Morocco is expected to reach 6.6% for the whole of 2022, according to the High Commission for Planning (HCP).

Core inflation, which excludes prices subject to state intervention and products with volatile prices, is expected to stand at 5.8% in 2022, after 1.7% a year earlier, reports the HCP in its recent outlook for the fourth quarter of 2022 and outlook for the first quarter of 2023.

In Q4 2022, consumer prices should have continued to rise at the same rate of change as the previous quarter, i.e. +8.1%, in annual variation, instead of +2.5% recorded a year earlier, said the same source, explaining that this stable pace would have resulted from a slight easing in the prices of non-food products, for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2021, rising to +4.3% instead of +4, 5% recorded in the previous quarter, while food prices would have accelerated by 14.1%.

In particular, specifies the HCP, the rate of increase in the prices of non-fresh food products would have remained at a high level, contributing 4 points to the overall change in prices. The recent ebb in prices of cereal-based products would have been offset by the rise in prices of dairy products, eggs, meats and oils, especially those of olive oil. The dry climatic conditions and the increase in the cost of livestock feed would have negatively affected the local production of these foodstuffs.

The prices of fresh products would have continued their momentum at the rate of +18.3%, with a significant contribution from those of fresh vegetables. The reduction in the reserves of dams for agricultural use would have impacted the production of market gardeners, in particular that of potatoes and onions.

At the same time, the ebb in international oil prices would have favored an attenuation of the rise in energy prices, while those of services would have accelerated, in particular the prices of education. Those of manufactured products should have continued to grow at the same pace as in Q3 2022, in line with the trend in input prices and production costs.

Core inflation, for its part, should have continued to soar to reach +7.4%, after +6.7% in the previous quarter and +2.9% during the same period of 2021, driven by the the still dynamic evolution of its food component and the rise in the prices of the services included in it.

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