AfDB: Africa's economic growth will exceed forecasts in 2023/24

The African Development Bank Group (AfDB) has unveiled its semi-annual report on Africa’s economic prospects. It shows that Africa’s economic growth is expected to outpace that of the rest of the world over the next two years, with real gross domestic product (GDP) averaging around 4% in 2023 and 2024.

This figure is higher than the expected global averages of 2.7% and 3.2%, says the report titled “Africa’s Macroeconomic Performance and Prospects”.

Through a comprehensive analysis of regional growth, the report shows that the five regions of the continent remain resilient with stable medium-term prospects, despite facing significant headwinds from global socio-economic shocks. It also identifies risks and calls for robust monetary and fiscal measures, backed by structural policies, to address them.

An AfDB statement notes that the document will be released in the first and third quarters of each year, to complement the Bank’s annual African Economic Outlook report, which focuses on key emerging policy themes that are relevant to the global economy. continental development.

Average estimated real GDP growth in Africa slowed to 3.8% in 2022, from 4.8% in 2021, amid major challenges following the Covid-19 shock and the Ukraine-Russia conflict , the report said, noting that despite this economic slowdown, 53 of Africa’s 54 countries posted positive growth. The five regions of the continent remain resilient with stable medium-term prospects.

However, the report has a caveat on the outlook given the current global and regional risks. These risks include soaring food and energy prices, tighter global financial conditions, and related increases in domestic debt servicing costs. Climate change, with its adverse effects on food supplies and the potential risk of policy change in countries where elections will be held in 2023, poses equally formidable threats.

The AfDB paper calls for bold national, regional and global policy measures to help African economies mitigate these compounding risks.

Speaking at the launch ceremony, AfDB Group President Akinwumi Adesina said the release of this new report comes at a time when African economies, facing significant headwinds, are demonstrating their resilience.

“With 54 countries at different stages of growth, different economic structures and diverse resource endowments, the effects of global shocks always vary by region and country. Slowing global demand, tighter financial conditions and disrupted supply chains have therefore impacted African economies differently”he said, noting that “Despite the confluence of multiple shocks, growth in all five African regions was positive in 2022—and the outlook for 2023-2024 is expected to be stable.”

The five best performing African economies of the pre-Covid-19 period are expected to grow by more than 5.5% on average in 2023-2024 and regain their place among the ten fastest growing economies in the world. These countries are Rwanda (7.9%), Côte d’Ivoire (7.1%), Benin (6.4%), Ethiopia (6.0%) and Tanzania (5.6%). ).

Other African countries are expected to grow above 5.5% over the 2023-24 period. These are the Democratic Republic of the Congo (6.8%), Gambia (6.4%), Libya (12.9%), Mozambique (6.5%), Niger (9.6 %), Senegal (9.4%) and Togo (6.3%).

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