The OECD points to a decline in growth in the major economies

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) reported that Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity from its trend, continue to signal a downturn in growth in the OECD area and most major economies, based on information up to November 2022.

A statement from the organization specifies that among the main OECD economies, the ICAs continue to signal a decline in growth in the United States, the United Kingdom and Canada, as well as in the euro zone, notably in Germany , France and Italy.

As in previous months, these developments can mainly be attributed to high inflation and rising interest rates. On the other hand, stable growth continues to be anticipated in Japan, specifies the same source.

Among the main emerging economies, the signals remain mixed. In China (industrial sector), the CIA confirms the signs of stabilizing growth that emerged in last month’s assessment and now points to stable growth, led by motor vehicle production and the stock prices.

On the other hand, in India, and now in Brazil, the CLIs anticipate a downturn in growth hampered respectively by monetary indicators and orders in the manufacturing sector.

The OECD explains in this regard that the continuing uncertainties related to the war in Ukraine lead to larger than usual fluctuations in the ICA and its components and therefore ICAs should be interpreted with caution and their magnitude should be seen as an indication of signal strength rather than a measure of growth in economic activity.

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