Morocco hard hit, 4% in 2023 against 44% in 2021

The World Bank (WB) predicts, in a baseline scenario, that remittance flows to Morocco are likely to be the hardest hit by the global crisis, falling from 44% growth in 2021 to 4% in 2023. Another country in the region, Egypt, is expected to see a moderate gain of 2%.

In a migration and development brief published on Wednesday, the WB notes that for low- and middle-income countries, remittances from migrants are a vital source of income and help reduce poverty and improve nutritional status.

Thus, remittances to low- and middle-income countries withstood global turmoil in 2022, the note observes, noting that their total amount is estimated at $626 billion, a 5% increase from the previous year. ‘last year. However, this is a sharp decline compared to the 10.2% increase recorded in 2021, specifies the WB.

The World Bank’s Global Director for Social Protection and Employment, Michal Rutkowski, explains that “Migrants help loosen tight labor markets in host countries while supporting their families through remittances. Inclusive social protection policies have helped workers weather the income and employment shocks created by the COVID-19 pandemic. Because they make it possible to support migratory remittances, these policies have positive effects on a planetary scale and must be maintained..

With regard to Africa, the note estimates that it is the region of the world which is expected to be most affected by the impact of concomitant crises, linked in particular to severe droughts and the surge in world prices of basic products. energy and food.

Indeed, it is further specified, migratory remittances to sub-Saharan Africa would thus have increased by 5.2%, against 16.4% last year. In other regions of the world, the report highlights a 10.3% increase in remittances in Europe and Central Asia, where rising oil prices and demand for migrant workers in Russia have encouraged remittances. funds, in addition to the impact of the appreciation of the ruble.

In Ukraine, currently at war, the increase is estimated at 2%, which is lower than previous projections. This downward revision is explained in the note by the fact that the money destined for Ukrainians has been sent to the countries that host them and that the hand-delivery has probably increased.

In 2023, the rating anticipates moderate growth of 4.7% given the more unfavorable economic outlook. Regarding developing countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, they should receive 63 billion dollars in migration remittances in 2022, an increase of 2.5% against 10.5% in 2021.

In detail, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) should receive 63 billion dollars in migration remittances in 2022, an increase of 2.5% against 10.5% in 2021. This slowdown is partly linked, according to the note, to the erosion of real wages in the euro zone, even if the demand for remittances in the countries of origin has increased in the context of deteriorating living conditions, notably the drought in the Maghreb and the high prices for imported wheat.

As a percentage of GDP, remittances are significant in Lebanon (38%), West Bank and Gaza (19%). Overall, flows to the region are expected to increase by 2% in 2023. Sending costs for $200 amounted to 6.3% on average in the second quarter of 2022.

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