Republicans favored, Democrats under pressure

Less than two weeks before the US mid-term elections, the forecasts are going well on the expected verdict of the polls. In swing states, Republicans are ahead of their Democratic rivals on the issues most important to voters, including inflation, the economy, and crime and immigration.

During this decisive election for the political life of the United States, all of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives are renewed, as well as a third of the 100 seats in the Senate. On the same day, many states, counties and cities hold elections for their own representatives. Almost two-thirds of the governors, vested with the executive power of their state, are thus elected. If the Democrats have now more or less given up on the House, they nevertheless remain optimistic about their chances of keeping at least the 50 seats they currently have in the Senate.

They even hope to win one or two additional seats, a bet that is far from easy, according to the results of numerous polls. The Pennsylvania candidate, John Fetterman, proclaims that he will be the 51st Democratic senator, while Senator Rick Scott of Florida, responsible for the Republican campaign, predicts that his people will win a majority of 52 seats. The battle for the Upper House is indeed getting closer and closer. The stakes are vital for President Joe Biden’s party, especially if it loses the House, which is becoming increasingly likely.

If Republicans control both houses of Congress, it will be next to impossible for this administration to achieve its goals. The United States would then be heading for two years of paralysis until the next presidential election in 2024.

For the moment, the polls give each party 48 seats. Everything could be played out in four key states: Nevada, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia.

In Nevada, Republican Adam Laxalt, son of a former senator of Basque origin, current state prosecutor, is trying to replace the Democratic senator, Catherine Cortez Masto, elected in 2016. She accuses his rival, supported by Trump, to spread the “big lie” of a stolen election in 2020. For his part, he accuses him of being anti-police.

Between the two, there is only one or two points difference. Each party opens its coffers to saturate TVs and radios with political advertisements in favor of their candidate. Much will depend on the Hispanic vote, with Las Vegas casinos employing many Latinos. Barack Obama will be there on November 1 to support Cortez Masto, and Joe Biden hasn’t ruled out traveling to Nevada. No state better exemplifies this shift in electorate from summer to fall than Pennsylvania. In August, there was little doubt for analysts that deputy governor, Democrat John Fetterman, would win the seat of Pat Toomey, a Republican senator who did not represent himself. This optimism was largely based on the weakness of his opponent.

A doctor of Turkish origin, Mehmet Oz, who became a television star with his own medical program during which he sometimes recommended drugs of uncertain effectiveness, has just entered politics. The success of this media star had caught the attention of Donald Trump who had encouraged him to run in Pennsylvania, despite being a native of New Jersey. New to politics, Dr. Oz seemed an easy target for Fetterman, an experienced politician. Unfortunately, the deputy governor suffered a stroke in May which weakened him physically and slowed down his campaign. Uncharitable for a doctor, Mehmet Oz, was pleased to point out this deficiency of his rival.

Fetterman’s doctor, in his latest diagnosis, however, certified that he had all of these abilities. The Republican had been largely outdistanced throughout the summer by the shaven-headed giant who loves hooded jackets, but with the financial and political support of his party, Oz has caught up, including accusing Fetterman of not not having fought crime with enough force, when he was mayor of his city.

Today, what seemed like a sure victory for the Democrats is far less certain, with the two men finding themselves virtually neck and neck. Georgia is perhaps the state that arouses the most interest among observers. Two African Americans confront each other. The Democrat, Raphaƫl Warnock, a pastor always dressed to the nines, a good speaker, was elected to the Senate in 2020, with another Democrat, which had allowed the party to have 50 seats. His rival, the former American football champion, Herschel Walker, with an already very turbulent private life, recently experienced a new scandal. He would have paid 700 dollars for the abortion of one of his mistresses, while he affirms in public to be firmly opposed to abortions. Very embarrassed by this new revelation which he strongly rejects, the Republicans have nevertheless decided to continue to support him. Warnock and Walker debated on October 14. Everyone thought that the pastor would beat the athlete without difficulty.

However, Walker defended himself relatively well and avoided humiliation. Even though Warnock seems to have the advantage, the battle continues to be close. Republicans are hoping Gov. Brian Kemp’s likely victory over African American Stacey Abrams will help Herschel Walker cross the finish line in a conservative state. If neither candidate gets more than 50% of the vote, there will be a second round, so it may not be known which party won the senate until December. Other states are also to follow: Ohio, where Democrat Tim Ryan is struggling to catch up with the candidate supported by Trump, JD Vance, author of a bestseller on his life as a poor child in Appalachia who managed to earn a degree from the prestigious Harvard University.

In North Carolina, the probable victory awaited by the Republican Ted Bud, while in New Hampshire, the Democrat Maggie Hassan, however very threatened, should retain her seat in favor of the rightist extremism of her opponent. Even though Republicans who can take the House for granted improved their chances in the Senate, pollster Five Thirty Eight, one of the masters of the profession, continued to give the Democrats a 60% chance of retaining the senate. The suspense continues.

Previous Post Next Post