3 unknowns that could influence the course of events

The beginnings of the resolution of the file around the Sahara are beginning to be felt since the regional balance of power and geopolitical developments have changed. In this month of October, the month during which the Sahara issue is being dealt with at Security Council level, three major unknowns will perhaps influence the course of events.

According to political scientist Mustapha Tossa, the possibility that this UN meeting at the level of . He advances in the sense that the Security Council could sound the end of the separatist adventure would be highly probable. He argues that “international perceptions of this Saharan discord have changed”.

The option of autonomy proposed by Morocco is in the process of winning over people’s minds and convictions, he affirms, taking as an example the American recognition, Spanish and German turns, almost Arab unanimity, African performances, “so many factors that make the mission of UN Special Envoy Staffan de Mistura open to many changes and other accelerations”.

However, there remain three great unknowns which arouse curiosity and questions, he noted, specifying that it is primarily a question of the positioning of French diplomacy, following the “cold” public crisis between Rabat and Paris. Mustapha Tossa wonders if this crisis “will influence the French vision of this conflict and rub off on its position”.

The departure of the French ambassador to Rabat and the recent theatrical rapprochement with Algeria in two acts, while Morocco’s calls find no echo in Paris, are they signals to be taken into consideration for the dossier? of the Sahara?

The second unknown in this regional equation is the positioning of Algeria, says Tossa. “Will the godfather of the Polisario who denies being a stakeholder in this conflict finally agree to participate in the principles of the round tables initiated by the UN process? “, he asks when at the same time last year, Algeria had made a headlong rush to block the process.

The idea behind this refusal, according to the political scientist, is to prevent the international community from officially asking him to account for his politico-military support for the Polisario separatist militias which constitute a threat to regional stability and security.

Moreover, the level of involvement of the Iranian regime in supporting the Polisario is also a source of concern for the international community, and this is the third unknown.

“It must be said that regional anxieties around this conflict are growing, especially since it has been shown that the Iranian regime, whose political ties with the Algerian regime are no longer a secret to anyone, wants to use the Polisario as an instrument of war and influence as it does with the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen or the popular brigades in Iraq”, indicated the Maghreb specialist.

According to him, the involvement of the Iranian regime in this regional crisis around the Sahara should be an additional factor for the international community to close it as soon as possible and to urgently contain this discord between Morocco and Algeria.

Finally, the international legal literature indicates that there is no longer any question of a referendum or independence of the Sahara as the Algerian propaganda would have it or would say, and this sounds like “the possibility that this UN meeting on the Sahara could sounding the end of the separatist adventure is very likely. In any case, the suspense is at its height.

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