International financing conditions, an insurance factor

The Kingdom’s international financing conditions remain an insurance factor, according to Attijari Global Research (AGR).

“We remain confident about Morocco’s ability to achieve new international releases without major difficulties and under + correct + financing conditions”say AGR analysts in the report “Research report fixed income” entitled “Towards a continuation of the rise in rates in 2022”.

The Kingdom still benefits from a relatively more attractive risk premium compared to emerging countries, they add. Two findings support this, in particular favorable sovereign debt ratings with a stable outlook. Thanks to the latest drawings (precautionary and liquidity line and special drawing right) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Morocco has strengthened its resilience to external shocks. Under these conditions, foreign exchange reserves stand at the highest of 300 billion dirhams, ie around 6 months of B&S imports.

“It is also a share of the external debt controlled at 24% in 2022” according to our estimates, i.e. a level consistent with the reference benchmark of the Treasury internationally. The latter is between [25%-30%] “, continues AGR. And to recall that in 2022, the monetary tightening of several major international central banks (FED, ECB, BOE, BNS, etc.), led to upward pressure on the financing rates of emerging economies. Thus, the required risk premium has averaged more than 390 basis points since the start of 2022, up 22% compared to 2021.


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