the PCNS publishes a structural analysis of short-term economic scenarios

The Policy Center for the New South (PCNS) recently published a structural analysis of short-term economic scenarios for Morocco.

Entitled “Structural analysis of short-term economic scenarios for Morocco: a multi-sectoral and multi-regional approach”, this study aims to provide solid elements of analysis on the potential effects in terms of growth, job creation, inclusion and long-term sustainability of the various financing plans to mitigate the effects of the covid-19 crisis at the regional level, especially since the economic recovery in the aftermath of the pandemic should accelerate the transition towards a development model more resilient, inclusive, sustainable and efficient.

It first presents the methodological approach adopted, then sheds light on the various aspects of short-term recovery based on a decision-making tool that reveals potential compromises in the decision-making process. decision by simulating alternative stimulus allocation scenarios. Finally, the last three sections assess these short-term scenarios (2021-2023) by simulating the impact of raising additional resources.

These resources are aimed at accelerating existing projects, and/or setting up new projects (assuming that public spending can mobilize additional resources from other sources during the post-covid-19 recovery). The PCNS also notes that although details are still lacking in terms of specific programmes/projects, the current debate converges on several priority sectors, namely, agriculture, manufacturing industry, infrastructure, tourism, information and communication technologies.

This same analysis simulates short-term scenarios by taking into account the base scenario (BAU – business as usual), which takes into account the official forecasts of the Department of Studies and Financial Forecasts (DEPF), under the Ministry of Finance. ‘Economy and Finance, for the main macroeconomic aggregates. It also uses information from the Finance Law, which provides details of budgetary allocations relating to public investments by region for the year 2021, including the budgetary efforts undertaken to mitigate the effects of the crisis.

The alternative scenario simulates the impact of the injection of additional resources of an annual amount of 10 billion dirhams (MMDH), or approximately one percentage point of pre-pandemic GDP per year.

It should be recalled that since 2015, Morocco has made advanced regionalization a strategic choice to materialize its political will to implement a more integrated territorial development approach. This initiative aims to ensure sustainable, robust and inclusive territorial development but also to capitalize on the potential of each region in terms of resources.

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