growth at 0.9% in Q2-2022

Economic growth would have accelerated slightly in the second quarter of 2022, standing at 0.9%, on an annual basis, instead of +0.3% in the previous quarter, according to the High Commission for Planning (HCP).

This slight recovery would have been, in particular, attributable to the 3.6% increase in value added excluding agriculture, as well as the 16.1% decline in agricultural value added, specifies the HCP in its economic update for the second quarter 2022 and outlook for the third quarter.

This point shows that the 32% reduction in cumulative rainfall compared to a normal year, at the end of May 2022, would have led to a 17.1% drop in crop production. Penalized by the decline in water reserves from dams, the yields of spring crops would have fallen, particularly those of seeded rosacea.

The recovery in the production of seasonal market gardeners compared to the first quarter would have been accompanied by an improvement in the quantities exported, particularly in tomatoes and small vegetables. On the other hand, shipments of watermelons and melons would have fallen by more than 30% during the same period.

In the animal sectors, despite the weakening of the rangeland and the increase in the price of livestock feed, production would have posted an increase of 2%, in annual variation. It would have been particularly supported by the recovery of the poultry sector, after two years of poor performance.

In addition, the HCP indicates that the added value of the tertiary branches, mainly supported by the strengthening of public service activities and the continued recovery of tourism, transport and cultural services, would have increased by 5% in the second quarter. 2022, contributing +2.5 points to overall economic growth.

The added value of the secondary sector would have recovered by 0.8% in Q2-2022, in annual variation, after having fallen by 0.9% in the previous quarter. This recovery would have been mainly due to an improvement in the added value of manufacturing industries by 1.1%, attributable to the recovery of textile activities and the strengthening of those of pharmaceutical products and rubber.

On the other hand, the added values ​​of the chemical industries and those of building materials would have continued to decline at the rates of 1.6% and 2.1% respectively, in annual variations during the same period.

The construction sector, for its part, appears to have continued its slowdown for the third quarter in a row. Its added value would have increased by 0.7% in the second quarter of 2022, instead of an increase of 1.8% in the previous quarter.

This development would have been confirmed by the decline in the use of building materials, in particular cement, whose sales would have fallen by 11.1% in the second quarter of 2022, in annual variation.

The expectations of construction professionals, expressed in the latest HCP business survey, augur a drop in contractors’ order books, in a context of a combined decline in the prices of real estate assets and real estate transactions.


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