Fuel, the first sector affected by the rise in inflation in June

The consumer price index, which measures the relative variation in consumer prices for a basket of typical products consumed by Moroccan households, rose by 7.2% during the month of June 2022 compared to the same months last year. This index measures the consequences of inflation on the baskets of Moroccan households.

The High Commission for Planning has published its monthly index measuring the repercussions of inflation for the food budgets of Moroccan households. Between June 2021 and June 2022, the increase is significant, it is estimated at 7.2% on the basis of a fixed basket comprising 546 items and 1,391 varieties of products consumed by Moroccan households.

This recorded increase is essentially due to the rise in the index of food products by 10.6% and that of non-food products by 4.9%, indicates the HCP. For Health products, this increase increased by 0.2% and by 17.6% for transport.

According to the same document, the prices having increased the most during the month of June compared to the previous month, concerning “Oils and fats” with 2,7% in addition, dairy products, cheese and eggs come just after with an increase of 2.1%.

Beverages, fruit juices and mineral waters also increased by 0.8% in months, the same for coffee, tea and cocoa products which evolved to 0.4%.

The document nevertheless specifies that other products fell in price in June, and this concerns vegetables, the prices of which fell to 3.1%, and 2.4% for fish and seafood, and 0 .1 for meat.

Apart from food products, it is the prices of fuels which have shown the most significant increase, ie 9.2% in the space of a month.

Price increases are not regular from one region to another raises the study, thus, the most significant increases in the CPI were recorded in the cities of Meknes and Beni-Mellal with 0.9%, while in Fez, the trend is rather downward with less than 0.7%.

They are followed by Casablanca and Marrakech with 0.8%, Tetouan and Laâyoune with 0.7%, Agadir and Oujda with 0.6% and Kenitra, Rabat, Guelmim and Settat with 0.5%.

The HCP also indicates that, taking into account all these conditions, the underlying inflation indicator, which excludes products at volatile prices and products at public prices, would have experienced an increase of 0.8% compared to May 2022 and 6.4% compared to June 2021.

The Moroccan central bank, Bank Al-Maghrib forecasts that Morocco will remain in this inflationary trend for the rest of 2022, due to the global situation driven by the war in Ukraine and the disruptions it causes on the prices of hydrocarbons, supply chains and foodstuffs.

“Inflation accelerated significantly in April to reach its highest level since October 1995, ie 5.9%, after an average of 4% during the first quarter of the year. In addition to the increase in fuel and lubricant prices, this acceleration is attributable to the accentuation of underlying inflation which stood at 5.5% after 4.4%, driven exclusively by the surge in the price of its tradable component, especially food,” BAM said.

In Q2-2022 inflation should reach 5.7% against 4% in Q1-2022, indicates the central bank, which puts a definitive inflation of around 5.3% and which should go down to 2% in 2023, but however, these forecasts remain dependent on developments in the international situation.

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