the World Bank forecasts growth of 1.1% for 2022 and 4.3% next year

The World Bank on Tuesday maintained its growth forecast for Morocco at 1.1% in 2022 against 7.4% last year, while anticipating a rebound to 4.3% in 2023.

“Growth in Morocco is expected to slow sharply to 1.1% in 2022, with the combined effects of drought and war in Ukraine outweighing the timid recovery in the services sector”reads the June edition of the report on “Prospects for the world economy”.

According to experts from the Washington-based financial institution, Morocco “is undergoing a new period of severe drought which will penalize agricultural production”. Overall in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), the report indicates that the region is expected to grow by 5.3% in 2022, the fastest pace in a decade, mainly due to gains made by oil-exporting countries.

The World Bank indicates that this growth “masks very heterogeneous situations and a downward trend, with a sharp slowdown expected in 2023 and 2024 across the region. »

The current rebound is mainly attributable to the strong growth of oil-exporting countries, stimulated by their rising revenues, and the general regression of the adverse effects of the pandemic in widely vaccinated countries, the document explains.

Thus, the economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are expected to grow by 5.9% in 2022, i.e. 1.2 percentage points more than the forecast at the start of the year.

As for oil importers, the fragile rebound was compromised by rising food and energy prices, higher credit prices and weaker external demand. The aftermath of the pandemic, in terms of job losses and debt, is still present.

Oil importer growth is projected to increase to 4.1% in 2022, a downward revision of 0.5% percentage point, before accelerating to 4.4% in 2023.

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