BAM: Automobile manufacturing exports forecast at 52.6 billion dirhams in 2022

Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM), reported that automobile manufacturing exports should increase by 33.7% to 52.6 billion dirhams (MMDH) in 2022.

In its recent report on monetary policy, the Central Bank indicates that these exports should increase by 10.5% to 58.1 billion dirhams in 2023.

And to add that shipments of phosphate and derivatives would rebound by 43.4% to 115.1 billion dirhams, in line with the expected rise in prices, before falling to 10.8% in 2023 to 102.7 billion dirhams.

With regard to exports of the “agricultural and agri-food” sector, they should improve by 6.5% to 74.2 billion dirhams in 2022 and by 1.3% to 75.2 billion dirhams in 2023.

Imports for their part would show an increase of 24.2%, driven mainly by a 61.6% increase in the energy bill.

In 2023, the rise in imports should be limited to 0.3%, notably due to the 7.8% increase in those of consumer goods and a 9.2% reduction in the energy bill to 111.2 billion dirhams.

At the same time, and in connection with the reopening of borders, travel receipts should improve, while remaining at levels below those before the crisis, going from 34.3 billion dirhams in 2021 to 54.3 billion dirhams in 2022. , then to 70.9 billion dirhams in 2023.

As for transfers from Moroccans residing abroad (MRE), and after an increase of 37.5% to a record amount of 93.7 billion dirhams in 2021, they should fall by 6.8% to 87.3 billion dirhams in 2022 and from 3.8% to 84 billion dirhams in 2023.

In terms of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, receipts would be around 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) over the forecast horizon.

Taking into account in particular the assumptions of donation inflows of 2.2 billion dirhams in 2022 and 2 billion dirhams in 2023 and planned external financing from the Treasury internationally, the official reserve assets (AOR) would stand at 342.5 billion dirhams at the end of 2022 and 346.4 billion dirhams at the end of 2023, i.e. the equivalent of more than 6 months of imports of goods and services.

Overall, exports are expected to increase by 22% in 2022, then increase by 0.8% in 2023.

It should be noted that last May, the Minister of Commerce, Ryad Mezzour, maintained that the Moroccan automotive sector should reach more than 105 billion DH by the end of the current year, i.e. clearly more than 84 billion HD in 2021.

Total exports should exceed 330 billion DH in 2022, he said, noting that Moroccan exports are experiencing remarkable development.

We went from 160 billion DH eight years ago to 280 billion DH in 2019″, also highlighted Mezzour, who referred to the development of the automotive industry in Morocco as a sign that the country is on the right track.

Morocco is the largest exporter of cars to the European Union by volume“, the country sends more vehicles to the EU than China, Korea, Japan or Turkey, and then “the best-selling car in Europe is made in Morocco”welcomed the minister.

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