sharp decline in growth and rising inflation

Like many countries in the world, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia…, in short, those in the Maghreb region are impacted by the conflict in Ukraine which occurred after two years of Covid-19 reign as well as by the slowdown in the economy. global economy and climate risks.

Also these factors in a majority of countries have put an end to a recovery or at least to the hope of a recovery. According to the African Development Bank (AfDB), growth is expected to slow to 4.5% in 2022, which would largely reflect the decline in base effects particularly in the Maghreb. According to the African Development Bank’s forecasts for Africa, after 7.2% growth in Morocco, the AfDB forecasts economic growth of 1.8% during this financial year and 3.3% in 2023. For the Morocco, the ADB, present since 1970 in Morocco, is a privileged partnership with regard to its forty operations for a commitment of approximately 4 billion dollars.

But it is said that in 2022, despite the recovery of exports and the revival of tourism, growth is projected at this rate, which happens to be lower than that of 2015-2019, due to the increase in prices. , rainfall and the outlook for a related agricultural season that is not very encouraging. Also, it will not be surprising that in 2022, inflation could exceed 4% and see the budget deficit projected at 6.3% of GDP. Moreover, it’s the same story, for Africa where growth could slow to 4.1% in 2022, the AfDB tells us, and remain “frozen” at this level in 2023, due to the persistence of Dame Covid. and inflationary pressures caused by the conflict in Ukraine, which together with the Russian Federation are the main suppliers of cereals to the African continent.

Economic growth in Algeria will experience a slight decline in 2022 with 3.7%. At the same time, the Algerian economy will experience growing inflation. Thus, the ADB affirms that “the budget and current account balances show an upward trend in the short term” (0.9 and 0.2% of GDP in 2022). She explains that “the marked improvement in public finances and the current account balance is due to the impact of the Ukrainian crisis”, a crisis which has driven up oil prices. However, the ADB recommends to Algeria to diversify its economy, by movingin particular towards petrochemicals, gas and agricultural products which have a strong export potential“. But what to expect from the senile of Algiers if not the stubbornness and the personal profit of its capos.

The AfDB explains that “this improvement in oil revenue partially offset the increase in investment spending. These developments, combined with consolidation measures in 2021, reduced the budget deficit by 4.84%“. She also states that “the current account deficit improved by 5.1 percentage points of GDP in 2021, thanks to the increase in the volume and price of oil exports, and import compression measures“. But it is a question of management and when the capos get involved it is in the pockets of the officers that these dividends land.

As for Tunisia, GDP growth is expected to reach 2.5% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023, according to the report on the African Economic Outlook 2022, presented Wednesday in the capital of Ghana in Accra, during the Annual Meetings of the AfDB Group (May 23-27, 2022). Inflation has been revised upwards for the 2022 financial year, due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which caused a surge in oil prices and particularly food prices on world markets. The AfDB notes, however, that it should decrease in 2023, once Tunisia has adopted a prudent monetary policy and above all the easing of external inflationary tensions, and the internal political situation according to the AfDB report.

Several projects are financed within the framework of a five-year strategy which affects various fields and aims in particular at improving the competitiveness of the Moroccan economy and improving the standard of living of its citizens. In half a century, the AfDB has invested 12 billion dollars in projects relating, in particular, to infrastructure, human capital, agriculture, energy transition and access to drinking water, with a rate of 60% of disbursements. During the past financial year, 2021, the AfDB mobilized a budget envelope of 3.5 billion dirhams for topical issues, relating, in particular, to resilience and energy transition, financial inclusion and entrepreneurship. .

For 2022, this envelope amounted to 4.5 billion dirhams, and the AfDB has confirmed its desire to increase it in 2023. This is to say the commitment of Morocco and the AfDB to succeed in achieving strong and inclusive growth. This works within the framework of South-South cooperation. Moreover, the AfDB wants to duplicate the Moroccan model in the Sahel and repeat, for example, the feat of the Noor Ouarzazate complex, one of the largest solar parks in the world, with the Desert to Power project, which aims to provide energy to 250 million people in the countries that make up the Sahelian belt with an investment of 20 billion dollars.

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